A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
One may look upon a free people as a great association whose members
secure mutually their properties by supporting proportionally the
charges of this guaranty. The confederation of several peoples would
give to them advantages analogous to those which each individual enjoys
in the society. A congress of their representatives would discuss
objects of a utility common to all and without doubt the system of
weights, measures, and moneys proposed by the French scientists would be
adopted in this congress as one of the things most useful to commercial
relations.
Among the institutions founded upon the probabilities of human life the
better ones are those in which, by means of a light sacrifice of his
revenue, one assures his existence and that of his family for a time
when one ought to fear to be unable to satisfy their needs. As far as
games are immoral, so far these institutions are advantageous to customs
by favoring the strongest bents of our nature. The government ought then
to encourage them and respect them in the vicissitudes of public
fortune; since the hopes which they present look toward a distant
future, they are able to prosper only when sheltered from all inquietude
during their existence. It is an advantage that the institution of a
representative government assures them.
Let us say a word about loans. It is clear that in order to borrow
perpetually it is necessary to pay each year the product of the capital
by the rate of interest. But one may wish to discharge this principal in
equal payments made during a definite number of years, payments which
are called _annuities_ and whose value is obtained in this manner. Each
annuity in order to be reduced at the actual moment ought to be divided
by a power of unity augmented by the rate of interest equal to the
number of years after which this annuity ought to be paid. Forming then
a geometric progression whose first term is the annuity divided by unity
augmented by the rate of interest, and whose last term is this annuity
divided by the same quantity raised to a power equal to the number of
years during which the payment should have been made, the sum of this
progression will be equivalent to the capital borrowed, which will
determine the value of the annuity. A sinking fund is at bottom only a
means of converting into annuities a perpetual rent with the sole
difference that in the case of a loan by annuities the interest is
supposed constant, while the interest of funds acquired by the sinking
fund is variable. If it were the same in both cases, the annuity
corresponding to the funds acquired would be formed by these funds and
from this annuity the State contributes annually to the sinking fund.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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