A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Liebnitz, always led by a singular and very loose metaphysics,
considered that the series plus one, minus one, plus one, etc., becomes
unity or zero according as one stops at a number of terms odd or even;
and as in infinity there is no reason to prefer the even number to the
odd, one ought following the rules of probability, to take the half of
the results relative to these two kinds of numbers, and which are zero
and unity, which gives ½ for the value of the series. Daniel Bernoulli
has since extended this reasoning to the summation of series formed from
periodic terms. But all these series have no values properly speaking;
they get them only in the case where their terms are multiplied by the
successive powers of a variable less than unity. Then these series are
always convergent, however small one supposes the difference of the
variable from unity; and it is easy to demonstrate that the values
assigned by Bernoulli, by virtue of the rule of probabilities, are the
same values of the generative fraction of the series, when one supposes
in these fractions the variable equal to unity. These values are again
the limits which the series approach more and more, in proportion as the
variable approaches unity. But when the variable is exactly equal to
unity the series cease to be convergent; they have values only as far as
one arrests them. The remarkable ratio of this application of the
calculus of probabilities with the limits of the values of periodic
series supposes that the terms of these series are multiplied by all the
consecutive powers of the variable. But this series may result from the
development of an infinity of different fractions in which this did not
occur. Thus the series plus one, minus one, plus one, etc., may spring
from the development of a fraction whose numerator is unity plus the
variable, and whose denominator is this numerator augmented by the
square of the variable. Supposing the variable equal to unity, this
development changes, in the series proposed, and the generative fraction
becomes equal to ⅔; the rules of probabilities would give then a false
result, which proves how dangerous it would be to employ similar
reasoning, especially in the mathematical sciences, which ought to be
especially distinguished by the rigor of their operations.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account