A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
We are led naturally to believe that the order according to which we see
things renewed upon the earth has existed from all times and will
continue always. Indeed if the present state of the universe were
exactly similar to the anterior state which has produced it, it would
give birth in its turn to a similar state; the succession of these
states would then be eternal. I have found by the application of
analysis to the law of universal gravity that the movement of rotation
and of revolution of the planets and satellites, and the position of the
orbits and of their equators are subjected only to periodic
inequalities. In comparing with ancient eclipses the theory of the
secular equation of the moon I have found that since Hipparchus the
duration of the day has not varied by the hundredth of a second, and
that the mean temperature of the earth has not diminished the
one-hundredth of a degree. Thus the stability of actual order appears
established at the same time by theory and by observations. But this
order is effected by divers causes which an attentive examination
reveals, and which it is impossible to submit to calculus.
The actions of the ocean, of the atmosphere, and of meteors, of
earthquakes, and the eruptions of volcanoes, agitate continually the
surface of the earth and ought to effect in the long run great changes.
The temperature of climates, the volume of the atmosphere, and the
proportion of the gases which constitute it, may vary in an
inappreciable manner. The instruments and the means suitable to
determine these variations being new, observation has been unable up to
this time to teach us anything in this regard. But it is hardly probable
that the causes which absorb and renew the gases constituting the air
maintain exactly their respective proportions. A long series of
centuries will show the alterations which are experienced by all these
elements so essential to the conservation of organized beings. Although
historical monuments do not go back to a very great antiquity they offer
us nevertheless sufficiently great changes which have come about by the
slow and continued action of natural agents. Searching in the bowels of
the earth one discovers numerous débris of former nature, entirely
different from the present. Moreover, if the entire earth was in the
beginning fluid, as everything appears to indicate, one imagines that in
passing from that state to the one which it has now, its surface ought
to have experienced prodigious changes. The heavens itself in spite of
the order of its movements, is not unchangeable. The resistance of light
and of other ethereal fluids, and the attraction of the stars ought,
after a great number of centuries, to alter considerably the planetary
movements. The variations already observed in the stars and in the form
of the nebulæ give us a presentiment of those which time will develop in
the system of these great bodies. One may represent the successive
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