A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
"It is necessary," says the Roman orator, "to reject divination by
dreams and all similar prejudices. Widespread superstition has
subjugated the majority of minds and has taken possession of the
feebleness of men. It is this we have expounded in our books upon the
nature of the gods and especially in this work, persuaded that we shall
render a service to others and to ourselves if we succeed in destroying
superstition. However (and I desire especially in this regard my thought
be well comprehended), in destroying superstition I am far from wishing
to disturb religion. Wisdom enjoins us to maintain the institutions and
the ceremonies of our ancestors, touching the cult of the gods.
Moreover, the beauty of the universe and the order of celestial things
force us to recognize some superior nature which ought to be remarked
and admired by the human race. But as far as it is proper to propagate
religion, which is joined to the knowledge of nature, so far it is
necessary to work toward the extirpation of superstition, for it
torments one, importunes one, and pursues one continually and in all
places. If one consult a diviner or a soothsayer, if one immolates a
victim, if one regards the flight of a bird, if one encounters a
Chaldean or an aruspex, if it lightens, if it thunders, if the
thunderbolt strikes, finally, if there is born or is manifested a kind
of prodigy, things one of which ought often to happen, then superstition
dominates and leaves no repose. Sleep itself, this refuge of mortals in
their troubles and their labors, becomes by it a new source of
inquietude and fear."
All these prejudices and the terrors which they inspire are connected
with physiological causes which continue sometimes to operate strongly
after reason has disabused us of them. But the repetition of acts
contrary to these prejudices can always destroy them.
CHAPTER XVII.
_CONCERNING THE VARIOUS MEANS OF APPROACHING CERTAINTY._
Induction, analogy, hypotheses founded upon facts and rectified
continually by new observations, a happy tact given by nature and
strengthened by numerous comparisons of its indications with experience,
such are the principal means for arriving at truth.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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