A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The surest method which can guide us in the search for truth, consists
in rising by induction from phenomena to laws and from laws to forces.
Laws are the ratios which connect particular phenomena together: when
they have shown the general principle of the forces from which they are
derived, one verifies it either by direct experiences, when this is
possible, or by examination if it agrees with known phenomena; and if by
a rigorous analysis we see them proceed from this principle, even in
their small details, and if, moreover, they are quite varied and very
numerous, then science acquires the highest degree of certainty and of
perfection that it is able to attain. Such, astronomy has become by the
discovery of universal gravity. The history of the sciences shows that
the slow and laborious path of induction has not always been that of
inventors. The imagination, impatient to arrive at the causes, takes
pleasure in creating hypotheses, and often it changes the facts in order
to adapt them to its work; then the hypotheses are dangerous. But when
one regards them only as the means of connecting the phenomena in order
to discover the laws; when, by refusing to attribute them to a reality,
one rectifies them continually by new observations, they are able to
lead to the veritable causes, or at least put us in a position to
conclude from the phenomena observed those which given circumstances
ought to produce.
If we should try all the hypotheses which can be formed in regard to the
cause of phenomena we should arrive, by a process of exclusion, at the
true one. This means has been employed with success; sometimes we have
arrived at several hypotheses which explain equally well all the facts
known, and among which scholars are divided, until decisive observations
have made known the true one. Then it is interesting, for the history of
the human mind, to return to these hypotheses, to see how they succeed
in explaining a great number of facts, and to investigate the changes
which they ought to undergo in order to agree with the history of
nature. It is thus that the system of Ptolemy, which is only the
realization of celestial appearances, is transformed into the hypothesis
of the movement of the planets about the sun, by rendering equal and
parallel to the solar orbit the circles and the epicycles which he
causes to be described annually, and the magnitude of which he leaves
undetermined. It suffices, then, in order to change this hypothesis into
the true system of the world, to transport the apparent movement of the
sun in a sense contrary to the earth.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account