A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Since the sun brings forth, by the beneficent action of its light and of
its heat, the animals and plants which cover the earth, we judge by
analogy that it produces similar effects upon the other planets; for it
is not natural to think that the cause whose activity we see developed
in so many ways should be sterile upon so great a planet as Jupiter,
which, like the terrestrial globe, has its days, its nights, and its
years, and upon which observations indicate changes which suppose very
active forces. Yet this would be giving too great an extension to
analogy to conclude from it the similitude of the inhabitants of the
planets and of the earth. Man, made for the temperature which he enjoys,
and for the element which he breathes, would not be able, according to
all appearance, to live upon the other planets. But ought there not to
be an infinity of organization relative to the various constitutions of
the globes of this universe? If the single difference of the elements
and of the climates make so much variety in terrestrial productions, how
much greater the difference ought to be among those of the various
planets and of their satellites! The most active imagination can form no
idea of it; but their existence is very probable.
We are led by a strong analogy to regard the stars as so many suns
endowed, like ours, with an attractive power proportional to the mass
and reciprocal to the square of the distances; for this power being
demonstrated for all the bodies of the solar system, and for their
smallest molecules, it appears to appertain to all matter. Already the
movements of the small stars, which have been called _double_, on
account of their being binary, appear to indicate it; a century at most
of precise observations, by verifying their movements of revolution, the
ones about the others, will place beyond doubt their reciprocal
attractions.
The analogy which leads us to make each star the centre of a planetary
system is far less strong than the preceding one; but it acquires
probability by the hypothesis which has been proposed in regard to the
formation of the stars and of the sun; for in this hypothesis each star,
having been like the sun, primitively environed by a vast atmosphere, it
is natural to attribute to this atmosphere the same effects as to the
solar atmosphere, and to suppose that it has produced, in condensing,
planets and satellites.
A great number of discoveries in the sciences is due to analogy. I shall
cite as one of the most remarkable, the discovery of atmospheric
electricity, to which one has been led by the analogy of electric
phenomena with the effects of thunder.
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