A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Some years later I expounded the principles of this
theory with a remark as to the influence of the inequalities which may
exist among the chances which are supposed to be equal. Although it is
not known which of the simple events these inequalities favor,
nevertheless this ignorance itself often increases the probability of
compound events.
In generalizing analysis and the problems concerning probabilities, I
was led to the calculus of partial finite differences, which Lagrange
has since treated by a very simple method, elegant applications of which
he has used in this kind of problems. The theory of generative functions
which I published about the same time includes these subjects among
those it embraces, and is adapted of itself and with the greatest
generality to the most difficult questions of probability. It determines
again, by very convergent approximations, the values of the functions
composed of a great number of terms and factors; and in showing that the
square root of the ratio of the circumference to the radius enters most
frequently into these values, it shows that an infinity of other
transcendents may be introduced.
Testimonies, votes, and the decisions of electoral and deliberative
assemblies, and the judgments of tribunals, have been submitted likewise
to the calculus of probabilities. So many passions, divers interests,
and circumstances complicate the questions relative to the subjects,
that they are almost always insoluble. But the solution of very simple
problems which have a great analogy with them, may often shed upon
difficult and important questions great light, which the surety of
calculus renders always preferable to the most specious reasonings.
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