A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
One of the most interesting applications of the calculus of
probabilities concerns the mean values which must be chosen among the
results of observations. Many geometricians have studied the subject,
and Lagrange has published in the _Mémoires de Turin_ a beautiful method
for determining these mean values when the law of the errors of the
observations is known. I have given for the same purpose a method based
upon a singular contrivance which may be employed with advantage in
other questions of analysis; and this, by permitting indefinite
extension in the whole course of a long calculation of the functions
which ought to be limited by the nature of the problem, indicates the
modifications which each term of the final result ought to receive by
virtue of these limitations. It has already been seen that each
observation furnishes an equation of condition of the first degree,
which may always be disposed of in such a manner that all its terms be
in the first member, the second being zero. The use of these equations
is one of the principal causes of the great precision of our
astronomical tables, because an immense number of excellent observations
has thus been made to concur in determining their elements. When there
is only one element to be determined Côtes prescribed that the equations
of condition should be prepared in such a manner that the coefficient of
the unknown element be positive in each of them; and that all these
equations should be added in order to form a final equation, whence is
derived the value of this element. The rule of Côtes was followed by all
calculators, but since he failed to determine several elements, there
was no fixed rule for combining the equations of condition in such a
manner as to obtain the necessary final equations; but one chose for
each element the observations most suitable to determine it. It was in
order to obviate these gropings that Legendre and Gauss concluded to add
the squares of the first members of the equations of condition, and to
render the sum a minimum, by varying each unknown element; by this means
is obtained directly as many final equations as there are elements. But
do the values determined by these equations merit the preference over
all those which may be obtained by other means? This question, the
calculus of probabilities alone was able to answer. I applied it, then,
to this subject, and obtained by a delicate analysis a rule which
includes the preceding method, and which adds to the advantage of
giving, by a regular process, the desired elements that of obtaining
them with the greatest show of evidence from the totality of
observations, and of determining the values which leave only the
smallest possible errors to be feared.
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