A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
All events, even those which on account of their insignificance do not
seem to follow the great laws of nature, are a result of it just as
necessarily as the revolutions of the sun. In ignorance of the ties
which unite such events to the entire system of the universe, they have
been made to depend upon final causes or upon hazard, according as they
occur and are repeated with regularity, or appear without regard to
order; but these imaginary causes have gradually receded with the
widening bounds of knowledge and disappear entirely before sound
philosophy, which sees in them only the expression of our ignorance of
the true causes.
Present events are connected with preceding ones by a tie based upon the
evident principle that a thing cannot occur without a cause which
produces it. This axiom, known by the name of _the principle of
sufficient reason_, extends even to actions which are considered
indifferent; the freest will is unable without a determinative motive to
give them birth; if we assume two positions with exactly similar
circumstances and find that the will is active in the one and inactive
in the other, we say that its choice is an effect without a cause. It is
then, says Leibnitz, the blind chance of the Epicureans. The contrary
opinion is an illusion of the mind, which, losing sight of the evasive
reasons of the choice of the will in indifferent things, believes that
choice is determined of itself and without motives.
We ought then to regard the present state of the universe as the effect
of its anterior state and as the cause of the one which is to follow.
Given for one instant an intelligence which could comprehend all the
forces by which nature is animated and the respective situation of the
beings who compose it—an intelligence sufficiently vast to submit these
data to analysis—it would embrace in the same formula the movements of
the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the lightest atom; for
it, nothing would be uncertain and the future, as the past, would be
present to its eyes. The human mind offers, in the perfection which it
has been able to give to astronomy, a feeble idea of this intelligence.
Its discoveries in mechanics and geometry, added to that of universal
gravity, have enabled it to comprehend in the same analytical
expressions the past and future states of the system of the world.
Applying the same method to some other objects of its knowledge, it has
succeeded in referring to general laws observed phenomena and in
foreseeing those which given circumstances ought to produce. All these
efforts in the search for truth tend to lead it back continually to the
vast intelligence which we have just mentioned, but from which it will
always remain infinitely removed. This tendency, peculiar to the human
race, is that which renders it superior to animals; and their progress
in this respect distinguishes nations and ages and constitutes their
true glory.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account