A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Leibnitz thought to give to his differential character the same
exponents as to magnitudes; but then in place of indicating the repeated
multiplications of the same magnitude these exponents indicate the
repeated differentiations of the same function. This new extension of
the Cartesian notation led Leibnitz to the analogy of positive powers
with the differentials, and the negative powers with the integrals.
Lagrange has followed this singular analogy in all its developments; and
by series of inductions which may be regarded as one of the most
beautiful applications which have ever been made of the method of
induction he has arrived at general formulæ which are as curious as
useful on the transformations of differences and of integrals the ones
into the others when the variables have divers finite increments and
when these increments are infinitely small. But he has not given the
demonstrations of it which appear to him difficult. The theory of
discriminant functions extends the Cartesian notations to some of its
characters; it shows with proof the analogy of the powers and operations
indicated by these characters; so that it may still be regarded as the
exponential calculus of characters. All that concerns the series and the
integration of equations of differences springs from it with an extreme
facility.
PART II.
APPLICATIONS OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES.
CHAPTER VI.
_GAMES OF CHANCE._
The combinations which games present were the object of the first
investigations of probabilities. In an infinite variety of these
combinations many of them lend themselves readily to calculus; others
require more difficult calculi; and the difficulties increasing in the
measure that the combinations become more complicated, the desire to
surmount them and curiosity have excited geometricians to perfect more
and more this kind of analysis. It has been seen already that the
benefits of a lottery are easily determined by the theory of
combinations. But it is more difficult to know in how many draws one can
bet one against one, for example that all the numbers will be drawn, _n_
being the number of numbers, _r_ that of the numbers drawn at each draw,
and _i_ the unknown number of draws. The expression of the probability
of drawing all the numbers depends upon the _n_th finite difference of
the _i_ power of a product of _r_ consecutive numbers. When the number
_n_ is considerable the search for the value of _i_ which renders this
probability equal to ½ becomes impossible at least unless this
difference is converted into a very converging series. This is easily
done by the method here below indicated by the approximations of
functions of very large numbers. It is found thus since the lottery is
composed of ten thousand numbers, one of which is drawn at each draw,
that there is a disadvantage in betting one against one that all the
numbers will be drawn in 95767 draws and an advantage in making the same
bet for 95768 draws.
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