A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities — John Shaqi
A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The fact that the ratio of births of boys to that of girls differs very
little from unity even in the great number of the births observed in a
place would offer in this regard a result contrary to the general law,
without which we should be right in concluding that this law did not
exist. In order to arrive at this result it is necessary to employ great
numbers and to be sure that it is indicated by great probability. Buffon
cites, for example, in his _Political Arithmetic_ several communities of
Bourgogne where the births of girls have surpassed those of boys. Among
these communities that of Carcelle-le-Grignon presents in 2009 births
during five years 1026 girls and 983 boys. Although these numbers are
considerable, they indicate, however, only a greater possibility in the
births of girls with a probability of 9/10, and this probability,
smaller than that of not throwing heads four times in succession in the
game of heads and tails, is not sufficient to investigate the cause for
this anomaly, which, according to all probability, would disappear if
one should follow during a century the births in this community.
The registers of births, which are kept with care in order to assure the
condition of the citizens, may serve in determining the population of a
great empire without recurring to the enumeration of its inhabitants—a
laborious operation and one difficult to make with exactitude. But for
this it is necessary to know the ratio of the population to the annual
births. The most precise means of obtaining it consists, first, in
choosing in the empire districts distributed in an almost equal manner
over its whole surface, so as to render the general result independent
of local circumstances; second, in enumerating with care for a given
epoch the inhabitants of several communities in each of these districts;
third, by determining from the statement of the births during several
years which precede and follow this epoch the mean number corresponding
to the annual births. This number, divided by that of the inhabitants,
will give the ratio of the annual births to the population in a manner
more and more accurate as the enumeration becomes more considerable. The
government, convinced of the utility of a similar enumeration, has
decided at my request to order its execution. In thirty districts spread
out equally over the whole of France, communities have been chosen which
would be able to furnish the most exact information. Their enumerations
have given 2037615 individuals as the total number of their inhabitants
on the 23d of September, 1802. The statement of the births in these
communities during the years 1800, 1801, and 1802 have given:
Births. Marriages. Deaths.
110312 boys 46037 103659 men
105287 girls 99443 women
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