A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Whatever may be the nature of the cause in question, since it has
produced or directed the movement of the planets, it is necessary that
it should have embraced all the bodies and considered all the distances
which separate them, it can have been only a fluid of an immense
extension. Therefore in order to have given them in the same sense an
almost circular movement about the sun it is necessary that this fluid
should have surrounded this star as an atmosphere. The consideration of
the planetary movements leads us then to think that by virtue of an
excessive heat the atmosphere of the sun was originally extended beyond
the orbits of all the planets, and that it has contracted gradually to
its present limits.
In the primitive state where we imagine the sun it resembled the nebulæ
that the telescope shows us composed of a nucleus more or less brilliant
surrounded by a nebula which, condensing at the surface, ought to
transform it some day into a star. If one conceives by analogy all the
stars formed in this manner, one can imagine their anterior state of
nebulosity itself preceded by other stars in which the nebulous matter
was more and more diffuse, the nucleus being less and less luminous and
dense. Going back, then, as far as possible, one would arrive at a
nebulosity so diffuse that one would be able scarcely to suspect its
existence.
Such is indeed the first state of the nebulæ which Herschel observed
with particular care by means of his powerful telescopes, and in which
he has followed the progress of condensation, not in a single one, these
stages not becoming appreciable to us except after centuries, but in
their totality, just about as one can in a vast forest follow the
increase of the trees by the individuals of the divers ages which the
forest contains. He has observed from the beginning nebulous matter
spread out in divers masses in the different parts of the heavens, of
which it occupies a great extent. He has seen in some of these masses
this matter slightly condensed about one or several faintly luminous
nebulæ. In the other nebulæ these nuclei shine, moreover, in proportion
to the nebulosity which surrounds them. The atmospheres of each nucleus
becoming separated by an ulterior condensation, there result the
multifold nebulæ formed of brilliant nuclei very adjacent and surrounded
each by an atmosphere; sometimes the nebulous matter, by condensing in a
uniform manner, has produced the nebulæ which are called _planetary_.
Finally a greater degree of condensation transforms all these nebulæ
into stars. The nebulæ classed according to this philosophic view
indicate with an extreme probability their future transformation into
stars and the anterior state of nebulosity of existing stars. The
following considerations come to the aid of proofs drawn from these
analogies.
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