A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
For a long time the particular disposition of certain stars visible to
the naked eye has struck the attention of philosophical observers.
Mitchel has already remarked how improbable it is that the stars of the
Pleiades, for example, should have been confined in the narrow space
which contain them by the chances of hazard alone, and he has concluded
from this that this group of stars and the similar groups that the
heaven presents us are the results of a primitive cause or of a general
law of nature. These groups are a necessary result of the condensation
of the nebulæ at several nuclei; it is apparent that the nebulous matter
being attracted continuously by the divers nuclei, they ought to form in
time a group of stars equal to that of the Pleiades. The condensation of
the nebulæ at two nuclei forms similarly very adjacent stars, revolving
the one about the other, equal to those whose respective movements
Herschel has already considered. Such are, further, the 61st of the Swan
and its following one in which Bessel has just recognized particular
movements so considerable and so little different that the proximity of
these stars to one another and their movement about the common centre of
gravity ought to leave no doubt. Thus one descends by degrees from the
condensation of nebulous matter to the consideration of the sun
surrounded formerly by a vast atmosphere, a consideration to which one
repasses, as has been seen, by the examination of the phenomena of the
solar system. A case so remarkable gives to the existence of this
anterior state of the sun a probability strongly approaching certainty.
But how has the solar atmosphere determined the movements of rotation
and revolution of the planets and the satellites? If these bodies had
penetrated deeply the atmosphere its resistance would have caused them
to fall upon the sun; one is then led to believe with much probability
that the planets have been formed at the successive limits of the solar
atmosphere which, contracting by the cold, ought to have abandoned in
the plane of its equator zones of vapors which the mutual attraction of
their molecules has changed into divers spheroids. The satellites have
been similarly formed by the atmospheres of their respective planets.
I have developed at length in my _Exposition of the System of the World_
this hypothesis, which appears to me to satisfy all the phenomena which
this system presents us. I shall content myself here with considering
that the angular velocity of rotation of the sun and the planets being
accelerated by the successive condensation of their atmospheres at their
surfaces, it ought to surpass the angular velocity of revolution of the
nearest bodies which revolve about them. Observation has indeed
confirmed this with regard to the planets and satellites, and even in
ratio to the ring of Saturn, the duration of whose revolution is .438
days, while the duration of the rotation of Saturn is .427 days.
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