A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The comets are so small that, in order to become visible, their
perihelion distance ought to be inconsiderable. Up to the present this
distance has surpassed only twice the diameter of the terrestrial orbit,
and most often it has been below the radius of this orbit. It is
conceived that, in order to approach so near the sun, their speed at the
moment of their entrance into its sphere of activity ought to have a
magnitude and a direction confined within narrow limits. In determining
by the analysis of probabilities the ratio of the chances which, in
these limits, give an appreciable hyperbola, to the chances which give
an orbit which may be confounded with a parabola, I have found that it
is a bet of at least 6000 against one that a nebula which penetrates
into the activity of the sun in such a manner as to be observed will
describe either a very elongated ellipse or an hyperbola. By the
magnitude of its axis, the latter will be appreciably confounded with a
parabola in the part which is observed; it is then not surprising that,
up to this time, hyperbolic movements have not been recognized.
The attraction of the planets, and, perhaps further, the resistance of
the ethereal centres, ought to have changed many cometary orbits in the
ellipses whose great axis is less than the radius of the sphere of
activity of the sun, which augments the chances of the elliptical
orbits. We may believe that this change has taken place with the comet
of 1759, and with the comet whose duration is only twelve hundred days,
and which will reappear without ceasing in this short interval, unless
the evaporation which it meets at each of its returns to the perihelion
ends by rendering it invisible.
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