A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
In this hypothesis the comets are strangers to the planetary system. In
attaching their formation to that of the nebulæ they may be regarded as
small nebulæ at the nuclei, wandering from systems to solar systems, and
formed by the condensation of the nebulous matter spread out in such
great profusion in the universe. The comets would be thus, in relation
to our system, as the aerolites are relatively to the Earth, to which
they would appear strangers. When these stars become visible to us they
offer so perfect resemblance to the nebulæ that they are often
confounded with them; and it is only by their movement, or by the
knowledge of all the nebulæ confined to that part of the heavens where
they appear, that we succeed in distinguishing them. This supposition
explains in a happy manner the great extension which the heads and tails
of comets take in the measure that they approach the sun, and the
extreme rarity of these tails which, in spite of their immense depth, do
not weaken at all appreciably the light of the stars which we look
across.
When the little nebulæ come into that part of space where the attraction
of the sun is predominant, and which we shall call the _sphere of
activity_ of this star, it forces them to describe elliptic or
hyperbolic orbits. But their speed being equally possible in all
directions they ought to move indifferently in all the senses and under
all inclinations of the elliptic, which is conformable to that which has
been observed.
The great eccentricity of the cometary orbits results again from the
preceding hypothesis. Indeed if these orbits are elliptical they are
very elongated, since their great axes are at least equal to the radius
of the sphere of activity of the sun. But these orbits may be
hyperbolic; and if the axes of these hyperbolæ are not very large in
proportion to the mean distance from the sun to the earth, the movement
of the comets which describe them will appear sensibly hyperbolic.
However, of the hundred comets of which we already have the elements,
not one has appeared certainly to move in an hyperbola; it is necessary,
then, that the chances which give an appreciable hyperbola should be
extremely rare in proportion to the contrary chances.
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