A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
We would give no credence to the testimony of a man who should attest to
us that in throwing a hundred dice into the air they had all fallen on
the same face. If we had ourselves been spectators of this event we
should believe our own eyes only after having carefully examined all the
circumstances, and after having brought in the testimonies of other eyes
in order to be quite sure that there had been neither hallucination nor
deception. But after this examination we should not hesitate to admit it
in spite of its extreme improbability; and no one would be tempted, in
order to explain it, to recur to a denial of the laws of vision. We
ought to conclude from it that the probability of the constancy of the
laws of nature is for us greater than this, that the event in question
has not taken place at all—a probability greater than that of the
majority of historical facts which we regard as incontestable. One may
judge by this the immense weight of testimonies necessary to admit a
suspension of natural laws, and how improper it would be to apply to
this case the ordinary rules of criticism. All those who without
offering this immensity of testimonies support this when making recitals
of events contrary to those laws, decrease rather than augment the
belief which they wish to inspire; for then those recitals render very
probable the error or the falsehood of their authors. But that which
diminishes the belief of educated men increases often that of the
uneducated, always greedy for the wonderful.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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