A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The probability of the decisions of an assembly depends upon the
plurality of votes, the intelligence and the impartiality of the members
who compose it. So many passions and particular interests so often add
their influence that it is impossible to submit this probability to
calculus. There are, however, some general results dictated by simple
common sense and confirmed by calculus. If, for example, the assembly is
poorly informed about the subject submitted to its decision, if this
subject requires delicate considerations, or if the truth on this point
is contrary to established prejudices, so that it would be a bet of more
than one against one that each voter will err; then the decision of the
majority will be probably wrong, and the fear of it will be the better
based as the assembly is more numerous. It is important then, in public
affairs, that assemblies should have to pass upon subjects within reach
of the greatest number; it is important for them that information be
generally diffused and that good works founded upon reason and
experience should enlighten those who are called to decide the lot of
their fellows or to govern them, and should forewarn them against false
ideas and the prejudices of ignorance. Scholars have had frequent
occasion to remark that first conceptions often deceive and that the
truth is not always probable.
It is difficult to understand and to define the desire of an assembly in
the midst of a variety of opinions of its members. Let us attempt to
give some rules in regard to this matter by considering the two most
ordinary cases: the election among several candidates, and that among
several propositions relative to the same subject.
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