A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
When an assembly has to choose among several candidates who present
themselves for one or for several places of the same kind, that which
appears simplest is to have each voter write upon a ticket the names of
all the candidates according to the order of merit that he attributes to
them. Supposing that he classifies them in good faith, the inspection of
these tickets will give the results of the elections in such a manner
that the candidates may be compared among themselves; so that new
elections can give nothing more in this regard. It is a question now to
conclude the order of preference which the tickets establish among the
candidates. Let us imagine that one gives to each voter an urn which
contains an infinity of balls by means of which he is able to shade all
the degrees of merit of the candidates; let us conceive again that he
draws from his urn a number of balls proportional to the merit of each
candidate, and let us suppose this number written upon a ticket at the
side of the name of the candidate. It is clear that by making a sum of
all the numbers relative to each candidate upon each ticket, that one of
all the candidates who shall have the largest sum will be the candidate
whom the assembly prefers; and that in general the order of preference
of the candidates will be that of the sums relative to each of them. But
the tickets do not mark at all the number of balls which each voter
gives to the candidates; they indicate solely that the first has more of
them than the second, the second more than the third, and so on. In
supposing then at first upon a given ticket a certain number of balls
all the combinations of the inferior numbers which fulfil the preceding
conditions are equally admissible; and one will have the number of balls
relative to each candidate by making a sum of all the numbers which each
combination gives him and dividing it by the entire number of
combinations. A very simple analysis shows that the numbers which must
be written upon each ticket at the side of the last name, of the one
before the last, etc., are proportional to the terms of the arithmetical
progression 1, 2, 3, etc. Writing then thus upon each ticket the terms
of this progression, and adding the terms relative to each candidate
upon these tickets, the divers sums will indicate by their magnitude the
order of their preference which ought to be established among the
candidates. Such is the mode of election which The Theory of
Probabilities indicates. Without doubt it would be better if each voter
should write upon his ticket the names of the candidates in the order of
merit which he attributes to them. But particular interests and many
strange considerations of merit would affect this order and place
sometimes in the last rank the candidate most formidable to that one
whom one prefers, which gives too great an advantage to the candidates
of mediocre merit. Likewise experience has caused the abandonment of
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