A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
The preceding question depends again upon the care taken in the
investigation of the offence; for one demands naturally much stronger
proofs for imposing the death penalty than for inflicting a detention of
some months. It is a reason for proportioning the care to the offence,
great care taken with an unimportant case inevitably clearing many
guilty ones. A law which gives to the judges power of moderating the
care in the case of attenuating circumstances is then conformable at the
same time to principles of humanity towards the culprit, and to the
interest of society. The product of the probability of the offence by
its gravity being the measure of the danger to which the acquittal of
the accused can expose society, one would think that the care taken
ought to depend upon this probability. This is done indirectly in the
tribunals where one retains for some time the accused against whom there
are very strong proofs, but insufficient to condemn him; in the hope of
acquiring new light one does not place him immediately in the midst of
his fellow citizens, who would not see him again without great alarm.
But the arbitrariness of this measure and the abuse which one can make
of it have caused its rejection in the countries where one attaches the
greatest price to individual liberty.
Now what is the probability that the decision of a tribunal which can
condemn only by a given majority will be just, that is to say, conform
to the true solution of the question proposed above? This important
problem well solved will give the means of comparing among themselves
the different tribunals. The majority of a single vote in a numerous
tribunal indicates that the affair in question is very doubtful; the
condemnation of the accused would be then contrary to the principles of
humanity, protectors of innocence. The unanimity of the judges would
give very strong probability of a just decision; but in abstaining from
it too many guilty ones would be acquitted. It is necessary, then,
either to limit the number of judges, if one wishes that they should be
unanimous, or increase the majority necessary for a condemnation, when
the tribunal becomes more numerous. I shall attempt to apply calculus to
this subject, being persuaded that it is always the best guide when one
bases it upon the data which common sense suggests to us.
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