A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
In order to condemn an accused it is necessary without doubt that the
judges should have the strongest proofs of his offence. But a moral
proof is never more than a probability; and experience has only too
clearly shown the errors of which criminal judgments, even those which
appear to be the most just, are still susceptible. The impossibility of
amending these errors is the strongest argument of the philosophers who
have wished to proscribe the penalty of death. We should then be obliged
to abstain from judging if it were necessary for us to await
mathematical evidence. But the judgment is required by the danger which
would result from the impunity of the crime. This judgment reduces
itself, if I am not mistaken, to the solution of the following question:
Has the proof of the offence of the accused the high degree of
probability necessary so that the citizens would have less reason to
doubt the errors of the tribunals, if he is innocent and condemned, than
they would have to fear his new crimes and those of the unfortunate ones
who would be emboldened by the example of his impunity if he were guilty
and acquitted? The solution of this question depends upon several
elements very difficult to ascertain. Such is the eminence of danger
which would threaten society if the criminal accused should remain
unpunished. Sometimes this danger is so great that the magistrate sees
himself constrained to waive forms wisely established for the protection
of innocence. But that which renders almost always this question
insoluble is the impossibility of appreciating exactly the probability
of the offence and of fixing that which is necessary for the
condemnation of the accused. Each judge in this respect is forced to
rely upon his own judgment. He forms his opinion by comparing the divers
testimonies and the circumstances by which the offence is accompanied,
to the results of his reflections and his experiences, and in this
respect a long habitude of interrogating and judging accused persons
gives great advantage in ascertaining the truth in the midst of indices
often contradictory.
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