A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Then its decisions depending upon the temperament, the
character, the habits of the jurors, and the circumstances in which they
are placed, they are sometimes contrary to the decisions which the
majority of the jury would have made if they had listened only to the
proofs; this seems to me to be a great fault of this manner of judging.
The probability of the decision is too feeble in our juries, and I think
that in order to give a sufficient guarantee to innocence, one ought to
demand at least a plurality of nine votes in twelve.
CHAPTER XIV.
_CONCERNING TABLES OF MORTALITY, AND OF MEAN DURATIONS OF LIFE, OF
MARRIAGES, AND OF ASSOCIATIONS._
The manner of preparing tables of mortality is very simple. One takes in
the civil registers a great number of individuals whose birth and death
are indicated. One determines how many of these individuals have died in
the first year of their age, how many in the second year, and so on. It
is concluded from these the number of individuals living at the
commencement of each year, and this number is written in the table at
the side of that which indicates the year. Thus one writes at the side
of zero the number of births; at the side of the year 1 the number of
infants who have attained one year; at the side of the year 2 the number
of infants who have attained two years, and so on for the rest. But
since in the first two years of life the mortality is very great, it is
necessary for the sake of greater exactitude to indicate in this first
age the number of survivors at the end of each half year.
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