A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
If we divide the sum of the years of the life of all the individuals
inscribed in a table of mortality by the number of these individuals we
shall have the mean duration of life which corresponds to this table.
For this, we will multiply by a half year the number of deaths in the
first year, a number equal to the difference of the numbers of
individuals inscribed at the side of the years 0 and 1. Their mortality
being distributed over the entire year the mean duration of their life
is only a half year. We will multiply by a year and a half the number of
deaths in the second year; by two years and a half the number of deaths
in the third year; and so on. The sum of these products divided by the
number of births will be the mean duration of life. It is easy to
conclude from this that we will obtain this duration, by making the sum
of the numbers inscribed in the table at the side of each year, dividing
it by the number of births and subtracting one half from the quotient,
the year being taken as unity. The mean duration of life that remains,
starting from any age, is determined in the same manner, working upon
the number of individuals who have arrived at this age, as has just been
done with the number of births. But it is not at the moment of birth
that the mean duration of life is the greatest; it is when one has
escaped the dangers of infancy and it is then about forty-three years.
The probability of arriving at a certain age, starting from a given age
is equal to the ratio of the two numbers of individuals indicated in the
table at these two ages.
The precision of these results demands that for the formation of tables
we should employ a very great number of births. Analysis gives then very
simple formulæ for appreciating the probability that the numbers
indicated in these tables will vary from the truth only within narrow
limits. We see by these formulæ that the interval of the limits
diminishes and that the probability increases in proportion as we take
into consideration more births; so that the tables would represent
exactly the true law of mortality if the number of births employed were
infinite.
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