A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
A table of mortality is then a table of the probability of human life.
The ratio of the individuals inscribed at the side of each year to the
number of births is the probability that a new birth will attain this
year. As we estimate the value of hope by making a sum of the products
of each benefit hoped for, by the probability of obtaining it, so we can
equally evaluate the mean duration of life by adding the products of
each year by half the sum of the probabilities of attaining the
commencement and the end of it, which leads to the result found above.
But this manner of viewing the mean duration of life has the advantage
of showing that in a stationary population, that is to say, such that
the number of births equals that of deaths, the mean duration of life is
the ratio itself of the population to the annual births; for the
population being supposed stationary, the number of individuals of an
age comprised between two consecutive years of the table is equal to the
number of annual births, multiplied by half the sum of the probabilities
of attaining these years; the sum of all these products will be then the
entire population. Now it is easy to see that this sum, divided by the
number of annual births, coincides with the mean duration of life as we
have just defined it.
It is easy by means of a table of mortality to form the corresponding
table of the population supposed to be stationary. For this we take the
arithmetical means of the numbers of the table of mortality
corresponding to the ages zero and one year, one and two years, two and
three years, etc. The sum of all these means is the entire population;
it is written at the side of the age zero. There is subtracted from this
sum the first mean and the remainder is the number of individuals of one
year and upwards; it is written at the side of the year 1. There is
subtracted from this first remainder the second mean; this second
remainder is the number of individuals of two years and upwards; it is
written at the side of the year 2, and so on.
So many variable causes influence mortality that the tables which
represent it ought to be changed according to place and time. The divers
states of life offer in this regard appreciable differences relative to
the fatigues and the dangers inseparable from each state and of which it
is indispensable to keep account in the calculations founded upon the
duration of life. But these differences have not been sufficiently
observed. Some day they will be and then will be known what sacrifice of
life each profession demands and one will profit by this knowledge to
diminish the dangers.
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