A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
Let us recall here what has been said in speaking of hope. It has been
seen that in order to obtain the advantage which results from several
simple events, of which the ones produce a benefit and the others a
loss, it is necessary to add the products of the probability of each
favorable event by the benefit which it procures, and subtract from
their sum that of the products of the probability of each unfavorable
event by the loss which is attached to it. But whatever may be the
advantage expressed by the difference of these sums, a single event
composed of these simple events does not guarantee against the fear of
experiencing a loss. One imagines that this fear ought to decrease when
one multiplies the compound event. The analysis of probabilities leads
to this general theorem.
By the repetition of an advantageous event, simple or compound, the real
benefit becomes more and more probable and increases without ceasing; it
becomes certain in the hypothesis of an infinite number of repetitions;
and dividing it by this number the quotient or the mean benefit of each
event is the mathematical hope itself or the advantage relative to the
event. It is the same with a loss which becomes certain in the long run,
however small the disadvantage of the event may be.
This theorem upon benefits and losses is analogous to those which we
have already given upon the ratios which are indicated by the indefinite
repetition of events simple or compound; and, like them, it proves that
regularity ends by establishing itself even in the things which are most
subordinated to that which we name _hazard_.
When the events are in great number, analysis gives another very simple
expression of the probability that the benefit will be comprised within
determined limits. This is the expression which enters again into the
general law of probability given above in speaking of the probabilities
which result from the indefinite multiplication of events.
The stability of institutions which are based upon probabilities depends
upon the truth of the preceding theorem. But in order that it may be
applied to them it is necessary that those institutions should multiply
these advantageous events for the sake of numerous things.
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