A Philosophical Essay on ProbabilitiesLaplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Philosophy
A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Laplace, Pierre Simon, marquis de
Probabilities
There have been based upon the probabilities of human life divers
institutions, such as life annuities and tontines. The most general and
the most simple method of calculating the benefits and the expenses of
these institutions consists in reducing these to actual amounts. The
annual interest of unity is that which is called _the rate of interest_.
At the end of each year an amount acquires for a factor unity plus the
rate of interest; it increases then according to a geometrical
progression of which this factor is the ratio. Thus in the course of
time it becomes immense. If, for example, the rate of interest is 1/20
or five per cent, the capital doubles very nearly in fourteen years,
quadruples in twenty-nine years, and in less than three centuries it
becomes two million times larger.
An increase so prodigious has given birth to the idea of making use of
it in order to pay off the public debt. One forms for this purpose a
sinking fund to which is devoted an annual fund employed for the
redemption of public bills and without ceasing increased by the interest
of the bills redeemed. It is clear that in the long run this fund will
absorb a great part of the national debt. If, when the needs of the
State make a loan necessary, a part of this loan is devoted to the
increasing of the annual sinking fund, the variation of public bills
will be less; the confidence of the lenders and the probability of
retiring without loss of capital loaned when one desires will be
augmented and will render the conditions of the loan less onerous.
Favorable experiences have fully confirmed these advantages. But the
fidelity in engagements and the stability, so necessary to the success
of such institutions, can be guaranteed only by a government in which
the legislative power is divided among several independent powers. The
confidence which the necessary coöperation of these powers inspires,
doubles the strength of the State, and the sovereign himself gains then
in legal power more than he loses in arbitrary power.
It results from that which precedes that the actual capital equivalent
to a sum which is to be paid only after a certain number of years is
equal to this sum multiplied by the probability that it will be paid at
that time and divided by unity augmented by the rate of interest and
raised to a power expressed by the number of these years.
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