A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of Birds — John Shaqi
A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of BirdsLowery, George H., Jr.
Science
A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of Birds
Lowery, George H., Jr.
Birds -- Migration
In seeking this end, we must immediately reject the simple logic of
sampling that may be applied to density studies of animals on land. We
must not assume that, since the field of observation is a volume in
space, the number of birds therein can be directly expressed in terms
of some standard volume--a cubic mile, let us say. Four birds counted
in a cone of observation computed as 1/500 of a cubic mile are not the
equivalent of 500 × 4, or 2000, birds per cubic mile. Nor do four
birds flying over a sample 1/100 of a square mile mathematically
represent 400 birds passing over the square mile. The reason is that
we are not dealing with static bodies fixed in space but with moving
objects, and the objects that pass through a cubic mile are not the
sum of the objects moving through each of its 500 parts. If this fact
is not immediately apparent, consider the circumstances in Figures 6
and 7, illustrating the principle as it applies to areas. The relative
capacity of the sample and the whole to intercept bodies in motion is
more closely expressed by the ratio of their perimeters in the case of
areas and the ratio of their surface areas in the case of volumes. But
even these ratios lead to inaccurate results unless the objects are
moving in all directions equally (see Figure 8). Since bird migration
exhibits strong directional tendencies, I have come to the conclusion
that no sampling procedure that can be applied to it is sufficiently
reliable short of handling each directional trend separately.
[Illustration: FIG. 6. The problem of sampling migrating
birds. The large square in the diagram may be thought of as a
square mile on the earth's surface, divided into four equal
smaller squares. Birds are crossing over the area in three
directions, equally spaced, so that each of the subdivisions
is traversed by three of them. We might be tempted to
conclude that 4 × 3, or 12, would pass over the large square.
Actually there are only seven birds involved all told.
Obviously, the interceptive potential of a small square and a
larger square do not stand in the same ratio as their areas.]
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