A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of BirdsLowery, George H., Jr.
Science
A Quantitative Study of the Nocturnal Migration of Birds
Lowery, George H., Jr.
Birds -- Migration
Under these conditions, there would be a lighter incidence of birds in
the sample triangle than in the upright triangle beside it (Figure 11,
Diagram III). Compensation can be made by deliberately scaling down
the computed size of the sample area below its actual size. A
procedure for doing this is explained in Figure 11. If it were applied
to present altitudinal data, it would place the computational flight
ceiling somewhere below 4000 feet. In arriving at the flight densities
used in this paper, however, I have used an assumed ceiling of one
mile. When the altitude factor is thus assigned a value of 1, it
disappears from the formula, simplifying computations. Until the true
situation with respect to the vertical distribution of flight is
better understood, it seems hardly worthwhile to sacrifice the
convenience of this approximation to a rigorous interpretation of
scanty data. This particular uncertainty, however, does not
necessarily impair the analytical value of the computations. Provided
that the vertical pattern of migration is more or less constant,
flight densities still afford a sound basis for comparisons, wherever
we assume the upper flight limits to be. Raising or lowering the
flight ceiling merely increases or reduces all sample cones or
triangles proportionately.
A more serious possibility is that the altitudinal pattern may vary
according to time or place. This might upset comparisons. If the
divergencies were severe enough and frequent enough, they could throw
the study of flight densities into utter confusion.
This consideration of possible variation in the altitudinal pattern
combines with accidents of sampling and the concessions to perfect
accuracy, explained on pages 379-385, to give to small quantities of
data an equivocal quality. As large-scale as the present survey is
from one point of view, it is only a beginning. Years of intensive
work and development leading to a vast accumulation of data must
elapse before the preliminary indications yet discernible assume the
status of proved principles. As a result, much of the discussion in
Part II of this paper is speculative in intent, and most of the
conclusions suggested are of a provisional nature. Yet, compared with
similar procedures in its field, flight density study is a highly
objective method, and a relatively reliable one. In no other type of
bird census has there ever been so near a certainty of recording _all_
of the individuals in a specified space, so nearly independently of
the subjective interpretations of the observer. The best assurance of
the essential soundness of the flight density computations lies in the
coherent results and the orderly patterns that already emerge from the
analyses presented in Part II.
B. OBSERVATIONAL PROCEDURE AND THE PROCESSING OF DATA
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