A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
So far, Reparation on a large scale has not been collected from
Germany. So far, the Allies have not paid interest to the United States
on what they owe. Our present troubles, when they are not attributable
to the after–effects of war and the cyclical depression of trade, are
due, therefore, not to the enforcement of these claims, but to the
uncertainties of their possible enforcement. It follows, therefore,
that merely to put off the problem will do us no good. That is what we
have been doing for two years already. Even to reduce our Reparation
demands to Germany’s maximum actual capacity and really force her
to pay them, might make matters worse than they are. To write down
inter–ally debts by half and then try to collect them, would be an
aggravation, not a cure, of the existing difficulties. The solution,
therefore, must not be one which tries to extract the last theoretical
penny from everybody; its main object must be to set the Finance
Ministers of _every_ country a problem not incapable of wise solution
over the next five years.
I. _The Revision of the Treaty_
The Reparation Commission have assessed the Treaty claims at 138
milliard gold marks, of which 132 milliards are for pensions and
damage and 6 milliards for Belgian debt. They have not stated in what
proportions the 132 milliards are divided between pensions and damages.
My own assessment of the Treaty claims (p. 131 above) is 110 milliards,
of which 74 milliards are for pensions and allowances, 30 milliards for
damage and 6 milliards for Belgian debt.
The arguments of Chapter VI make it incumbent on those who are
convinced by them to abandon as dishonorable the claims to pensions and
allowances. This reduces the claims to 36 milliards, a sum which it may
not be in our interest to exact in full, but which is probably within
Germany’s theoretical capacity to pay.
Apart from clearing out of the way various clauses which are no longer
operative or useful, and from terminating the occupation on conditions
set forth below, I should limit my Revision of the Treaty to this
simple stroke of the pen. Let the present assessment of 138 milliard
gold marks be replaced by 36 milliard gold marks.
We are strictly entitled under the Armistice Terms to these 36
milliards; and if prudence recommends an abatement below that figure,
such abatement can properly be made, on terms, by those and those only
who are entitled to the claims. I estimate with some confidence that
this sum of 36 milliards is divisible between the Allies about in the
proportions shown in the table below.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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