A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
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A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
The payment by Germany of 5 per cent interest and 1 per cent sinking
fund on this total sum is not, in my judgment, theoretically
impossible. But it could only be done by stimulating her export
industries in a manner injurious and irritating to Great Britain, and
by imposing on her Treasury a financial problem of such difficulty that
it would tend to unsound finance and to weak, unstable Governments.
Even though this payment is theoretically possible, I do not think that
it is practically obtainable over a period of thirty years.
────────────────┬───────┬─────────────┬──────
│Damage.│Belgian Debt.│Total.
────────────────┼───────┼─────────────┼──────
British Empire │ 9 │ 2 │ 11
France │ 16 │ 2 │ 18
Belgium │ 3 │ .. │ 3
Italy │ 1 │ .. │ 1
United States │ .. │ 2 │ 2
Others │ 1 │ .. │ 1
├───────┼─────────────┼──────
│ 30 │ 6 │ 36
────────────────┴───────┴─────────────┴──────
I recommend, therefore, that, as a separate arrangement from the
Revision of the Treaty as above, the British Empire should waive the
whole of their claims, with the exception of 1 milliard gold marks
reserved for a special purpose explained below, and should undertake
to square the claims of Italy and the minor claimants by cancelation
of debt owing from them; thus leaving Germany to pay 18 milliards to
France and 3 milliards to Belgium (on the assumption that the United
States also would forego the trifle due to her). This sum should be
discharged by an annual payment of 6 per cent of the sum due (being
5 per cent interest and 1 per cent sinking fund) over a period of
thirty years. With the assistance of minor measures to ease the opening
period, it is reasonable to suppose that this amount could be paid
without serious injury to any one.
In so far as it proves convenient to discharge this liability in goods,
and not in cash, so much the better. But I see no advantage in laying
stress on this. It would be wiser to leave Germany to find the money as
best she can, any payment in goods being by mutual agreement, as in the
Wiesbaden plan.
It may lead, however, to great anomalies to fix the annual payments
in terms of _gold_ over so long a period as thirty years. If gold
prices fall, the burden may become intolerable. If gold prices rise,
the claimants may be cheated of their expectations. The annual payment
should be adjusted, therefore, by some impartial authority, with
reference to an index number of the commodity–value of gold.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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