A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
The other Treaty change relates to the Occupation. It would promote
peaceable relations in Europe if, as a part of the new settlement, the
Allied troops were withdrawn altogether from German territory, and all
rights of invasion for whatever purpose waived, except by leave of a
majority vote of the League of Nations. But in return, the British
Empire and the United States should guarantee to France and Belgium
all reasonable assistance, short of warfare, in securing satisfaction
for their reduced claims; whilst Germany should guarantee the complete
de–militarization of her territory west of the Rhine.
II. _The Satisfaction of the Allies_
_France._—Is it in the interest of France to accept this settlement?
If it is combined with further concessions from Great Britain and
the United States by the cancelation of her debts to them, it is
overwhelmingly in her interest.
What is her present balance–sheet of claims and liabilities? She
is entitled to 52 per cent of what Germany pays. On p. 75 I have
calculated what this will be under the London Settlement, (_a_) on
the basis of German exports at the rate of 6 milliards, namely 3.56
milliard gold marks; and (_b_) on the basis of exports at the rate
of 10 milliards, namely 4.60 milliard gold marks. France’s share,
therefore, is 1.85 milliards per annum on assumption (_a_), and 2.39
milliards on assumption (_b_). On the other hand, she owes the United
States $3634 million and the United Kingdom £557 million. If these sums
be converted into gold marks at par, and the annual charge on them is
calculated at 5 per cent for interest and 1 per cent for sinking fund,
her liability is 1.48 milliards per annum. That is to say, if Germany
pays in full and if the more favorable assumption (_b_) is adopted
as to the growth of her exports, the most for which France can hope
under existing arrangements is a net sum of .91 milliard gold marks
(£45,500,000 gold) per annum. Whereas under the revised scheme she will
not only be entitled to a greater sum, namely 1.08 milliard gold marks
(£54,000,000 gold) per annum; but, inasmuch as she will be accorded a
priority on Germany’s available resources, and as the total charge is
within Germany’s capacity, she may reasonably expect to be paid.
My proposal provides for the complete restoration of the devastated
provinces at a fair valuation of the actual damage done, and it
abandons other rival claims which stand in the way of the priority of
this paramount claim. But apart from this, about which opinions will
differ, and apart from the increased likelihood which it affords of
really getting payment, France will actually receive a larger sum than
if the letter of the existing agreements is adhered to all round.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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