A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
In Germany the Paris proposals were taken seriously and provoked
a considerable outcry. But Dr. Simons accepted the invitation to
London and his experts got to work at a counter–proposal. “I was
in agreement,” he said at Stuttgart on February 13, “with the
representatives of Britain and France at the Brussels Conference. The
Paris Conference shattered that. A catastrophe has occurred. German
public opinion will never forget these figures. Now it is impossible
to return to the Seydoux plan put forward at Brussels (_i.e._, a
provisional settlement for five years), for the German people would
always see enormous demands rising before them like a specter.... We
shall rather accept unjust dictation than sign undertakings we are not
firmly persuaded the German people can keep.”
On March 1, 1921, Dr. Simons presented his counter–proposal to the
Allies assembled in London. Like the original counter–proposal of
Brockdorff–Rantzau at Versailles, it was not clear–cut or entirely
intelligible; and it was rumored that the German experts were divided
in opinion amongst themselves. Instead of stating in plain language
what Germany thought she could perform, Dr. Simons started from the
figures of the Paris Decisions and then proceeded by transparent
and futile juggling to reduce them to a quite different figure. The
process was as follows. Take the gross total of the fixed annuities of
the Paris scheme (_i.e._, apart from the export proportion), namely
$56,500,000,000, and calculate its present value at _8 per cent
interest_, namely $12,500,000,000; deduct from this $5,000,000,000
as the alleged (but certainly not the actual) value of Germany’s
deliveries up to date, which leaves $7,500,000,000. This was the
utmost Germany could pay. If the Allies could raise an international
loan of $2,000,000,000, Germany would pay the interest and sinking
fund on this, and in addition $250,000,000 a year for five years,
towards the discharge of the capital sum remaining over and above the
$2,000,000,000, namely, $5,500,000,000, which capital sum, however,
would not carry interest pending repayment. At the end of five years
the rate of repayment would be reconsidered. The whole proposal was
contingent on the retention of Upper Silesia and the removal of all
impediments to German trade.
The actual substance of this proposal was not unreasonable and probably
as good as the Allies will ultimately secure. But the figures were far
below even those of the Brussels experts, and the mode of putting it
forward naturally provoked prejudice. It was summarily rejected.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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