A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
1. The fate of Upper Silesia is highly relevant to some of the
conclusions about coal in Chapter IV of _The Economic Consequences
of the Peace_ (pp. 77–84). I there stated that “German authorities
claim, not without contradiction, that to judge from the votes cast
at elections, one–third of the population would elect in the Polish
interest, and two–thirds in the German,” which forecast turned out to
be in almost exact accordance with the facts. I also urged that, unless
the plebiscite went in a way which I did not expect, the industrial
districts ought to be assigned to Germany. But I felt no confidence,
having regard to the policy of France, that this would be done; and
I allowed, therefore, in my figures for the possibility that Germany
would lose this area.
The actual decision of the Allies, acting on the advice of the Council
of the League of Nations to whom the matter had been referred, which
we have discussed briefly above (pp. 12–14), divides the industrial
triangle between the two claimants to it. According to an estimate
of the Prussian Ministry of Trade 86 per cent of the total coal
deposits of Upper Silesia fall to Poland, leaving 14 per cent to
Germany. Germany retains a somewhat larger proportion of pits in actual
operation, 64 per cent of the current production of coal falling to
Poland and 36 per cent to Germany.[25]
The figure of 100,000,000 tons, given in _The Economic Consequences
of the Peace_ for the _net_ German production (_i.e._, deducting
consumption at the mines themselves) in the near future _excluding_
Upper Silesia, should, therefore, be replaced by the figure of (say)
115,000,000 tons, _including_ such part of Upper Silesia as Germany is
now to retain.
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