A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
The advantages to the Allies of marketing such Bonds are obvious. If
they could get rid of the Bonds they would have thrown the risk of
Germany’s default on to others; they would have interested a great
number of people all over the world in Germany’s not defaulting;
and they would have secured the actual cash which the exigencies of
their Budgets demand. But the hope is illusory. When at last a real
settlement is made, it may be practicable for the German Government to
float an international loan of moderate amount, well within the world’s
estimate of their minimum capacity of payment. But, though there are
foolish investors in the world, it would be sanguine to believe that
there are so many of such folly as to swallow at this moment on these
lines a loan of vast dimensions. It costs France at the present time
somewhere about 10 per cent to float a loan of modest dimensions on
the New York market. As the proposed German Bonds will carry 5 per
cent interest and 1 per cent sinking fund, it would be necessary to
reduce their price to 57 before they would yield 10 per cent including
redemption. It would be very optimistic, therefore, to expect to
market them at above half their par value. Even so, the world is not
likely to invest in them any large proportion of its current savings,
so that the whole amount even of the A Bonds, specified below, could
not be marketed at this price. Moreover, in so far as the service of
the Bonds marketed is within the _minimum_ expectation of Germany’s
capacity to pay (as it would have to be), the financial effect on the
Ally which markets the Bonds is nearly the same as though they were
to borrow themselves at the rate in question. Except, therefore, in
the case of those Allies whose credit is inferior to Germany’s, the
advantage compared with borrowing on their own credit would not be very
material.[34]
The details relating to the Bonds are not likely, therefore, to be
operative, and need not be taken very seriously. They are really a
relic of the pretenses of the Peace Conference days. Briefly, the
arrangements are as follows:
Germany must deliver 12 milliards of gold marks ($3,000,000,000) in A
Bonds, 38 milliards ($9,500,000,000) in B Bonds, and the balance of her
liabilities, provisionally estimated at 82 milliards ($20,500,000,000),
in C Bonds. All the Bonds carry 5 per cent interest and 1 per cent
cumulative sinking fund. The services of the series A, B, and C
constitute respectively a first, second, and third charge on the
available funds. The A Bonds are issued to the Reparation Commission
as from May 1, 1921, and the B Bonds as from November 1, 1921, but
the C Bonds shall not be issued (and shall not carry interest in
the meantime) except as and when the Reparation Commission is of
the opinion that the payments which Germany is making under the new
settlement are adequate to provide their service.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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