To calculate the total burden, it is necessary to estimate the value of German exports. In 1920 they amounted to about 5 milliard gold marks. In 1921 the volume will be greater, but this will be offset by the fact that gold prices have fallen to less than two–thirds of what they were, so that 4 to 5 milliard gold marks is quite high enough as a preliminary forecast for the year commencing May 1, 1921.[41] It is, of course, impossible to make a close estimate for later years. The figures will depend, not only on the recovery of Germany, but on the state of international trade generally, and more especially on the level of gold prices.[42] For the next two or three years, if we are to make an estimate at all, 6 to 10 milliards is, in my judgment, the best one can make. Twenty–six per cent of exports, valued at 6 milliards gold, will amount to about 1½ milliard gold marks, making, with the fixed annual payment of 2 milliards, 3½ milliards altogether. If exports rise to 10 milliards, the corresponding figure is 4½ milliards. The table of payments in the near future is then as shown on the next page, all the figures being in terms of milliards of gold marks. In the case of payments after May 1, 1922, I give alternative estimates on the basis of exports on the scale of 6 and 10 milliards respectively. Not the whole of these sums need be paid in cash, and the value of deliveries in kind is to be credited to Germany against them. This item has been estimated as high as 1.2 to 1.4 milliard gold marks per annum. The result will chiefly depend (1) on the amount and price of the coal deliveries, and (2) on the degree of success which attends the negotiations between France and Germany for the supply by the latter of materials required for the repair of the devastated area. The value of the coal deliveries depends on factors already discussed on p. 49, above, the _price_ of the coal being chiefly governed by the internal German price. At a price of 20 gold marks per ton and deliveries of 2,000,000 tons a month (neither of which figures are likely to be exceeded, or even reached, in the near future), coal will yield credits of .48 milliard gold marks. In the Loucheur–Rathenau Agreement[43] the value of deliveries in kind to France, including coal, over the next five years has been estimated at a possible total of 1.4 milliard gold marks per annum. If France receives .4 milliard gold marks in coal, not more than 35 per cent of the balance will be credited in the Reparation account. If this were realized, the aggregate deliveries in kind might approach 1 milliard. But, for various reasons, political and economic, this figure is unlikely to be reached, and if as much as .75 milliards per annum is realized from coal and reconstruction deliveries, this ought to be considered a highly satisfactory result.