That is to say, in so far as she depends for payment (as in the long run she must do) on current income. If capital, non–recurrent resources become available, the above conclusion will require modification accordingly. Germany still has an important capital asset untouched—the property of her nationals now sequestered in the hands of the Enemy–Property Custodian in the United States, of which the value is rather more than 1 milliard gold marks. If this were to become available for Reparation, directly or indirectly, default could be delayed correspondingly.[45] Similarly the grant to Germany of foreign credits on a substantial scale, even three–months’ credits from bankers on the security of the Reichsbank’s gold, would postpone the date a little, however useless in the long run. In reaching this conclusion, one can approach the problem from three points of view: (1) the problem of paying outside Germany, that is to say, the problem of exports and the balance of trade; (2) the problem of providing for payment by taxation, that is to say, the problem of the Budget; (3) the proportion of the sums demanded to the German national income. I will take them in turn, confining myself to what Germany can be expected to perform in the near future, to the exclusion of what she might do in hypothetical circumstances many years hence. (1) In order that Germany may be able to make payments abroad, it is necessary, not only that she should have exports, but that she should have a surplus of exports over imports. In 1920, the last complete year for which figures are available, so far from a surplus there was a deficit, the exports being valued at about 5 milliard gold marks and the imports at 5.4 milliards. The figures for 1921 so far available indicate not an improvement but a deterioration. The myth that Germany is carrying on a vast and increasing export trade is so widespread, that the actual figures for the six months from May to October 1921, converted into gold marks, may be given with advantage: