A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
During the summer of 1921 the gold mark was worth, in round figures,
20 paper marks. The internal purchasing power of the paper mark for
the purposes of working–class consumption was still nearly double
its corresponding value abroad, so that one could scarcely say that
equilibrium had been established. Nevertheless, the position was very
well adjusted compared with what it has since become. As I write
(December 1921) the gold mark has been fluctuating between 45 and
60 paper marks, while the purchasing power of the paper mark inside
Germany is for general purposes perhaps three times what it is outside
Germany.
Since my figures of Government revenue and expenditure are based on
statements made in the summer of 1921, perhaps my best course is to
take a figure of 20 paper marks to the gold mark. The effect of this
will be to understate my argument rather than the contrary. The reader
must remember that, if the mark remains at its present exchange value
long enough for internal values to adjust themselves to that rate, the
items in the following account, the income and the outgoings and the
deficit, will all tend to be multiplied threefold.
At this ratio (of 20 paper marks=1 gold mark), a Reparation liability
of 3½ milliard gold marks (assuming exports on the scale of 6
milliards) is equivalent to 70 milliard paper marks, and a liability
of 4½ milliards (assuming exports of 10 milliards) is equivalent
to 90 milliard paper marks. The German Budget for the financial year
April 1, 1921, to March 31, 1922, provided for an expenditure of
93.5 milliards, exclusive of Reparation payments, and for a revenue
of 59 milliards.[48] Thus the present Reparation demand would by
itself absorb more than the whole of the existing revenue. Doubtless
expenditure can be cut down, and revenue somewhat increased. But the
Budget will not cover even the lower scale of the Reparation payments
unless expenditure is halved and revenue doubled.[49]
If the German Budget for 1922–23 manages to balance, _apart_ from any
provision for Reparation, this will represent a great effort and a
considerable achievement. Apart, however, from the technical financial
difficulties, there is a political and social aspect of the question
which deserves attention here. The Allies deal with the established
German Government, make bargains with them, and look to them for
fulfilment. The Allies do not extract payment out of individual
Germans direct; they put pressure on the transitory abstraction called
Government, and leave it to this to determine and to enforce which
individuals are to pay, and how much. Since at the present time the
German Budget is far from balancing even if there were no Reparation
payments at all, it is fair to say that not even a beginning has yet
been made towards settling the problem of how the burden is to be
distributed between different classes and different interests.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace — John Shaqi
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