A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
(1) 293,733 houses were totally destroyed and 296,502 were partially
destroyed. Since nearly all the latter have been repaired, we shall
not be underestimating the damage in assuming, for the purposes of a
rough comparison, that, on the average, the damaged houses were _half_
destroyed, which gives us altogether the equivalent of 442,000 houses
totally destroyed. Turning back, we find that the French Government’s
claim for damage to houses was 16,768 million gold marks, that is to
say $4,192,000,000. Dividing this sum by the number of houses, we find
an average claim of $9,480, per house![70] This is a claim for what
were chiefly peasants’ and miners’ cottages and the tenements of small
country towns. M. Tardieu has quoted M. Loucheur as saying that the
houses in the Lens–Courrières district were worth 5000 francs ($1000)
a–piece before the war, but would cost 15,000 francs to rebuild after
the war, which sounds not at all unreasonable. In April 1921 the cost
of building construction in Paris (which had been a good deal higher
some months before) was estimated to be, in terms of paper francs,
three and a half times the pre–war figure.[71] But even if we take the
cost in francs at five times the pre–war figure, namely 25,000 paper
francs per house, the claim lodged by the French Government is still
three and a half times the truth. I fancy that the discrepancy, here
and also under other heads, may be partly explained by the inclusion
in the official French claim of indirect damages, namely, for loss of
rent—_perte de loyer_. It does not appear what attitude the Reparation
Commission took up towards _indirect_ pecuniary and business losses
arising in the devastated districts out of the war. But I do not think
that such claims are admissible under the Treaty. Such losses, real
though they were, were not essentially different from analogous losses
occurring in other areas, and indeed throughout the territory of the
Allies. The maximum claim, however, on this head would not go far
towards justifying the above figure, and we can allow a considerable
margin of error for such additional items without impairing the
conclusion that the claim is exaggerated. In _The Economic Consequences
of the Peace_ (p. 127) I estimated that $1,250,000,000 might be a fair
estimate for damage to house property; and I still think that this was
about right.
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