A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
(2) This claim for damage to houses is exclusive of furniture and
fittings, which are the subject of a separate claim, namely, for 11,417
million gold marks, or about $2,850,000,000. To check this figure let
us assume that the whole of the furniture and fittings were destroyed,
not only where the houses were destroyed, but also in every case where
a house was damaged. This is an overstatement, but we may set it off
against the fact that in a good many cases the furniture may have been
looted and not recovered by restitution (a large amount has, in fact,
been recovered in this way), although the structure of the house was
not damaged at all. The total number of houses damaged or destroyed
was 590,000. Dividing this into $2,850,000,000, we have an average of
nearly $5,000 per house—an average valuation of the furniture and
fittings in each peasant’s or collier’s house of nearly $5,000! I
hesitate to guess how great an overstatement shows itself here.
(3) The largest claim of all, however, is for “industrial damages,”
namely, 17,673 million gold marks, or about $4,400,000,000. In 1919 M.
Loucheur estimated the cost of reconstruction of the coal mines at 2000
million francs, that is $400,000,000 at the par of exchange.[72] As
the pre–war value of all the coal mines in Great Britain was estimated
at only $650,000,000, and as the pre–war output of the British mines
was fifteen times that of the invaded districts of France, this figure
seems high.[73] But even if we accept it, there is still four thousand
million dollars to account for. The great textile industries of Lille
and Roubaix were robbed of their raw material, but their plant was not
seriously injured, as is shown by the fact that in 1920 the woolen
industry of these districts was already employing 93.8 per cent and the
cotton industry 78.8 per cent of their pre–war personnel. At Tourcoing
55 factories out of 57 were in operation, and at Roubaix 46 out of
48.[74]
Altogether 11,500 industrial establishments are said to have been
interfered with, but this includes every village workshop, and about
three–quarters of them employed less than 20 persons. Half of them were
at work again by the spring of 1921. What is the average claim made on
their behalf? Deducting the coal mines as above and dividing the total
claim by 11,500, we reach an average figure of nearly $35,000. The
exaggeration seems _prima facie_ on as high a scale as in the case of
houses and furniture.
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