A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
1. It does not make very much difference whether the debtor country
pays by sending goods direct to the creditor or by selling them
elsewhere and remitting cash. In either case the goods come on to the
world market and are sold competitively or coöperatively in relation to
the industries of the creditor, as the case may be, this distinction
depending on the nature of the goods rather than on the market in which
they are sold.
2. It is not much use to _earmark_ non–competitive goods against the
payment of the debt, so long as competitive goods are being sold by the
debtor country in some other connection, _e.g._, to pay for its own
imports. This is simply to bury one’s head in the sand. For example,
out of the aggregate of goods which Germany would naturally export
in the event of her exports being forcibly stimulated, it might be
possible to pick out a selection of non–competitive goods; but it would
not affect the situation in the slightest degree to pretend that it was
these particular goods, and not the others, which were paying the debt.
It is therefore useless to prescribe that Germany shall pay in certain
specified commodities if these are commodities which she would export
in any case, and useless, equally, to forbid her to pay in certain
specified commodities, if that merely means that she will export these
commodities to some other market to pay for her imports generally. No
expedient on our part for making Germany pay us, or on America’s part
for making us pay her, in the shape of particular commodities affects
the position, except in so far as it modifies the form of the paying
country’s exports _as a whole_.
3. On the other hand, it does us no harm to receive for nothing the
proceeds of goods, even when they are sold competitively, if these
goods would be sold on the world’s market in any case.
4. If the result of pressing the debtor country to pay is to cause it
to offer competitive goods at a lower price than it would otherwise,
the particular industries in the creditor country which produce these
goods are bound to suffer, even though there are balancing advantages
for the creditor country as a whole.
5. In so far as the payments made by the debtor country accrue, not to
the country with which the debtor’s goods are competing, but to a third
party, clearly there are no balancing advantages to offset the direct
disadvantages under 4.
6. The answer to the question, whether the balancing advantages to
the creditor country as a whole outweigh the injury to particular
industries within that country, depends on the length of the period
over which the creditor country can reasonably expect to go on
receiving the payments. At first the injury to the industries which
suffer from the competition and to those employed in them is likely to
outweigh the benefit of the payments received. But, as in the course of
time the capital and labor are absorbed in other directions, a balance
of advantage may accrue.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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