A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
Mercantile nations have always employed large funds in overseas trade.
But the practice of foreign investment, as we know it now, is a very
modern contrivance, a very unstable one, and only suited to peculiar
circumstances. An old country can in this way develop a new one at a
time when the latter could not possibly do so with its own resources
alone; the arrangement may be mutually advantageous, and out of
abundant profits the lender may hope to be repaid. But the position
cannot be reversed. If European bonds are issued in America on the
analogy of the American bonds issued in Europe during the nineteenth
century, the analogy will be a false one; because, taken in the
aggregate, there is no natural increase, no _real_ sinking fund, out
of which they can be repaid. The interest will be furnished out of new
loans, so long as these are obtainable, and the financial structure
will mount always higher, until it is not worth while to maintain any
longer the illusion that it has foundations. The unwillingness of
American investors to buy European bonds is based on common sense.
At the end of 1919 I advocated (in _The Economic Consequences of the
Peace_) a reconstruction loan from America to Europe, conditioned,
however, on Europe’s putting her own house in order. In the past
two years America, in spite of European complaints to the contrary,
has, in fact, made _very large_ loans, much larger than the sum I
contemplated, though not mainly in the form of regular, dollar–bond
issues. No particular conditions were attached to these loans, and
much of the money has been lost. Though wasted in part, they have
helped Europe through the critical days of the post–Armistice period.
But a continuance of them cannot provide a solution for the existing
disequilibrium in the balance of indebtedness.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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