A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the PeaceKeynes, John Maynard
History
A Revision of the Treaty: Being a Sequel to The Economic Consequence of the Peace
Keynes, John Maynard
Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918 -- Reparations
In part the adjustment may be effected by the United States taking the
place hitherto held by England, France, and (on a small scale) Germany
in providing capital for those new parts of the world less developed
than herself—the British Dominions and South America. The Russian
Empire, too, in Europe and Asia, may be regarded as virgin soil, which
will at a later date provide a suitable outlet for foreign capital.
The American investor will lend more wisely to these countries, on the
lines on which British and French investors used to lend to them, than
direct to the old countries of Europe. But it is not likely that the
whole gap can be bridged thus. Ultimately, and probably soon, there
must be a readjustment of the balance of exports and imports. America
must buy more and sell less. This is the only alternative to her
making to Europe an annual present. Either American prices must rise
faster than European (which will be the case if the Federal Reserve
Board allows the gold influx to produce its natural consequences),
or, failing this, the same result must be brought about by a further
depreciation of the European exchanges, until Europe, by inability
to buy, has reduced her purchases to articles of necessity. At first
the American exporter, unable to scrap all at once the processes of
production for export, may meet the situation by lowering his prices;
but when these have continued, say for two years, below his cost of
production, he will be driven inevitably to curtail or abandon his
business.
It is useless for the United States to suppose that an equilibrium
position can be reached on the basis of her exporting at least as
much as at present, and at the same time restricting her imports by
a tariff. Just as the Allies demand vast payments from Germany, and
then exercise their ingenuity to prevent her paying them, so the
American Administration devises, with one hand, schemes for financing
exports, and, with the other, tariffs which will make it as difficult
as possible for such credits to be repaid. Great nations can often act
with a degree of folly which we should not excuse in an individual.
By the shipment to the United States of all the bullion in the
world, and the erection there of a sky–scraping golden calf, a short
postponement may be gained. But a point may even come when the United
States will refuse gold, yet still demand to be paid,—a new Midas
vainly asking more succulent fare than the barren metal of her own
contract.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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