A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. IIMill, John Stuart
Philosophy
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
Mill, John Stuart
Knowledge, Theory of; Logic; Science -- Methodology
such coincidences should occur, they would not prove the reality of the
undulatory ether; it would not follow that the phenomena of light were
results of the laws of elastic fluids, but at most that they are
governed by laws partially identical with these; which, we may observe,
is already certain, from the fact that the hypothesis in question could
be for a moment tenable.[7] Cases may be cited, even in our imperfect
acquaintance with nature, where agencies that we have good reason to
consider as radically distinct, produce their effects, or some of their
effects, according to laws which are identical. The law, for example, of
the inverse square of the distance, is the measure of the intensity not
only of gravitation, but (it is believed) of illumination, and of heat
diffused from a centre. Yet no one looks upon this identity as proving
similarity in the mechanism by which the three kinds of phenomena are
produced.
According to Dr. Whewell, the coincidence of results predicted from an
hypothesis, with facts afterwards observed, amounts to a conclusive
proof of the truth of the theory. "If I copy a long series of letters,
of which the last half dozen are concealed, and if I guess these aright,
as is found to be the case when they are afterwards uncovered, this must
be because I have made out the import of the inscription. To say, that
because I have copied all that I could see, it is nothing strange that I
should guess those which I cannot see, would be absurd, without
supposing such a ground for guessing."[8] If any one, from examining the
greater part of a long inscription, can interpret the characters so that
the inscription gives a rational meaning in a known language, there is a
strong presumption that his interpretation is correct; but I do not
think the presumption much increased by his being able to guess the few
remaining letters without seeing them: for we should naturally expect
(when the nature of the case excludes chance) that even an erroneous
interpretation which accorded with all the visible parts of the
inscription would accord also with the small remainder; as would be the
case, for example, if the inscription had been designedly so contrived
as to admit of a double sense. I assume that the uncovered characters
afford an amount of coincidence too great to be merely casual: otherwise
the illustration is not a fair one. No one supposes the agreement with
the phenomena of light with the theory of undulations to be merely
fortuitous. It must arise from the actual identity of some of the laws
of undulations with some of those of light: and if there be that
identity, it is reasonable to suppose that its consequences would not
end with the phenomena which first suggested the identification, nor be
even confined to such phenomena as were known at the time. But it does
not follow, because some of the laws agree with those of undulations,
that there are any actual undulations; no more than it followed because
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