A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. IIMill, John Stuart
Philosophy
A System of Logic: Ratiocinative and Inductive, 7th Edition, Vol. II
Mill, John Stuart
Knowledge, Theory of; Logic; Science -- Methodology
§ 7. It is necessary, before quitting the subject of hypotheses, to
guard against the appearance of reflecting upon the scientific value of
several branches of physical inquiry, which, though only in their
infancy, I hold to be strictly inductive. There is a great difference
between inventing agencies to account for classes of phenomena, and
endeavouring, in conformity with known laws, to conjecture what former
collocations of known agents may have given birth to individual facts
still in existence. The latter is the legitimate operation of inferring
from an observed effect, the existence, in time past, of a cause similar
to that by which we know it to be produced in all cases in which we have
actual experience of its origin. This, for example, is the scope of the
inquiries of geology; and they are no more illogical or visionary than
judicial inquiries, which also aim at discovering a past event by
inference from those of its effects which still subsist. As we can
ascertain whether a man was murdered or died a natural death, from the
indications exhibited by the corpse, the presence or absence of signs of
struggling on the ground or on the adjacent objects, the marks of
blood, the footsteps of the supposed murderers, and so on, proceeding
throughout on uniformities ascertained by a perfect induction without
any mixture of hypothesis; so if we find, on and beneath the surface of
our planet, masses exactly similar to deposits from water, or to results
of the cooling of matter melted by fire, we may justly conclude that
such has been their origin; and if the effects, though similar in kind,
are on a far larger scale than any which are now produced, we may
rationally, and without hypothesis, conclude either that the causes
existed formerly with greater intensity, or that they have operated
during an enormous length of time. Further than this no geologist of
authority has, since the rise of the present enlightened school of
geological speculation, attempted to go.
In many geological inquiries it doubtless happens that though the laws
to which the phenomena are ascribed are known laws, and the agents known
agents, those agents are not known to have been present in the
particular case. In the speculation respecting the igneous origin of
trap or granite, the fact does not admit of direct proof, that those
substances have been actually subjected to intense heat. But the same
thing might be said of all judicial inquiries which proceed on
circumstantial evidence. We can conclude that a man was murdered, though
it is not proved by the testimony of eye-witnesses that some person who
had the intention of murdering him was present on the spot. It is
enough, for most purposes, if no other known cause could have generated
the effects shown to have been produced.
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