We are familiar with the causal chain along which the pre-war method
reached its result. If gold flowed out of the country’s central
reserves, this modified discount policy and the creation of credit,
thus affecting the demand for, and hence the price of, the class of
goods most sensitive to the ease of credit, and gradually, through the
price of these goods, spreading its influence to the prices of goods
generally, including those which enter into international trade, until
at the new level of price foreign goods began to look dear at home and
domestic goods cheap abroad, and the adverse balance was redressed. But
this process might take months to work itself out. Nowadays, the gold
reserves might be dangerously depleted before the compensating forces
had time to operate. Moreover, the movement of the rate of interest
up or down sometimes had more effect in attracting foreign capital
or encouraging investment abroad than in influencing home prices.
Where the disequilibrium was purely seasonal, this was an unqualified
advantage; for it was much better that foreign funds should ebb and
flow between the slack and the busy seasons than that prices should
go up and down. But where it was due to more permanent causes, the
adjustment even before the war might be imperfect; for the stimulus to
foreign loans, whilst restoring the balance for the time being, might
obscure the real seriousness of the situation, and enable a country
to live beyond its resources for a considerable time at the risk of
ultimate default.
Compare with this the instantaneous effects of the post-war method. If
at the existing rate of exchange the amount of sterling offered in the
exchange market during the course of the morning exceeds the amount
of dollars offered, there is no gold available for export at a fixed
price to bridge the gulf. Consequently the dollar rate of exchange must
move until at the new rate the offerings of each of the two currencies
in exchange for one another exactly balance in amount. But it is the
inevitable result of this that within half an hour the relative prices
of commodities entering into English-American trade, such as cotton
and electrolytic copper, have adjusted themselves accordingly. Unless
the American prices move to meet them half-way, the English prices
immediately rise correspondent to the movement of the exchange.
This means that relative prices can be knocked about by the most
fleeting influences of politics and of sentiment, and by the periodic
pressure of seasonal trades. But it also means that the post-war method
is a most rapid and powerful corrective of real disequilibria in the
balance of international payments arising from whatever causes, and
a wonderful preventive in the way of countries which are inclined to
spend abroad beyond their resources.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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