(1) The service of the American debt will make it necessary for the
British Treasury to buy nearly $500,000 every working day. It is clear
that the particular method adopted for purchasing these huge sums will
greatly affect the short-period fluctuations of the exchange. I suggest
that this duty should be entrusted to the Bank of England to be carried
out by them with the express object of minimising those fluctuations
in the exchange which are due to the daily and seasonal ebb and flow
of the ordinary trade demand. In particular the proper distribution
of these purchases through the year might be so arranged as greatly to
mitigate the normal seasonal fluctuation discussed in Chapter III. If
the trade demand is concentrated in one half of the year the Treasury
demand should be concentrated in the other half.
(2) It would effect an improvement in the technique of the system here
proposed, without altering its fundamental characteristics, if the
Bank of England were to quote a daily price, not only for the purchase
and sale of gold for immediate delivery, but also for delivery three
months forward. The difference, if any, between the cash and forward
quotations might represent either a discount or a premium of the latter
on the former, according as the bank desired money rates in London to
stand below or above those in New York. The existence of the forward
quotation of the Bank of England would afford a firm foundation for
a free market in forward exchange, and would facilitate the movement
of funds between London and New York for short periods, in much the
same way as before the war, whilst at the same time keeping down to a
minimum the actual movement of gold bullion backwards and forwards. I
need not develop this point further, because it is only an application
of the argument of Section III. of Chapter III. which will be most
readily intelligible to the reader, if he will refer back to the
previous argument.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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