If, for any reason right or wrong, the business world _expects_ that
prices will fall, the processes of production tend to be inhibited; and
if it expects that prices will rise, they tend to be over-stimulated. A
fluctuation in the measuring-rod of value does not alter in the least
the wealth of the world, the needs of the world, or the productive
capacity of the world. It ought not, therefore, to affect the character
or the volume of what is produced. A movement of _relative_ prices,
that is to say of the comparative prices of different commodities,
_ought_ to influence the character of production, because it is an
indication that various commodities are not being produced in the
exactly right proportions. But this is not true of a change, as such,
in the _general_ price level.
The fact that the expectation of changes in the _general_ price
level affects the processes of production, is deeply rooted in the
peculiarities of the existing economic organisation of society, partly
in those described in the preceding sections of this chapter, partly
in others to be mentioned in a moment. We have already seen that a
change in the general level of prices, that is to say a change in
the measuring-rod, which fixes the obligation of the borrowers of
money (who make the decisions which set production in motion) to the
lenders (who are inactive once they have lent their money), effects a
redistribution of real wealth between the two groups. Furthermore, the
active group can, if they foresee such a change, alter their action in
advance in such a way as to minimise their losses to the other group
or to increase their gains from it, if and when the expected change
in the value of money occurs. If they expect a fall, it may pay them,
as a group, to damp production down, although such enforced idleness
impoverishes society as a whole. If they expect a rise, it may pay
them to increase their borrowings and to swell production beyond the
point where the real return is just sufficient to recompense society
as a whole for the effort made. Sometimes, of course, a change in the
measuring-rod, especially if it is unforeseen, may benefit one group
at the expense of the other disproportionately to any influence it
exerts on the volume of production; but the tendency, in so far as the
active group anticipate a change, will be as I have described it.[8]
This is simply to say that the intensity of production is largely
governed in existing conditions by the anticipated real profit of the
_entrepreneur_. Yet this criterion is the right one for the community
as a whole only when the delicate adjustment of interests is not upset
by fluctuations in the standard of value.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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