Three generations of economists have recognised that certain influences
produce a progressive and continuing change in the value of money, that
others produce in it an oscillatory movement, and that the latter act
cumulatively in their initial stages but produce the conditions for
a reaction after a certain point. But their investigations into the
oscillatory movements have been chiefly confined, until lately, to the
question what kind of cause is responsible for the initial impetus.
Some have been fascinated by the idea that the initial cause is always
the same and is astronomically regular in the times of its appearance.
Others have maintained, more plausibly, that sometimes one thing
operates and sometimes another.
It is one of the objects of this book to urge that the best way to cure
this mortal disease of individualism is to provide that there shall
never exist any confident expectation either that prices generally
are going to fall or that they are going to rise; and also that there
shall be no serious risk that a movement, if it does occur, will be
a big one. If, unexpectedly and accidentally, a moderate movement
were to occur, wealth, though it might be redistributed, would not be
diminished thereby.
To procure this result by removing all possible influences towards
an initial movement, whether such influences are to be found in the
skies only or everywhere, would seem to be a hopeless enterprise. The
remedy would lie, rather, in so controlling the standard of value that,
whenever something occurred which, left to itself, would create an
expectation of a change in the general level of prices, the controlling
authority should take steps to counteract this expectation by setting
in motion some factor of a contrary tendency. Even if such a policy
were not wholly successful, either in counteracting expectations
or in avoiding actual movements, it would be an improvement on the
policy of sitting quietly by, whilst a standard of value, governed by
chance causes and deliberately removed from central control, produces
expectations which paralyse or intoxicate the government of production.
* * * * *
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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