In agricultural countries where peasants readily hoard money, an
inflation, especially in its early stages, does not raise prices
proportionately, because when, as a result of a certain rise in the
price of agricultural products, more money flows into the pockets of
the peasants, it tends to stick there;--deeming themselves that much
richer, the peasants increase the proportion of their receipts that
they hoard.
Thus in these and in other ways the terms of our equation tend in
their movements to favour the stability of _p_, and there is a certain
friction which prevents a moderate change in _n_ from exercising its
full proportionate effect on _p_.
On the other hand a large change in _n_, which rubs away the initial
friction, and especially a change in _n_ due to causes which set up
a general expectation of a further change in the same direction, may
produce a _more_ than proportionate effect on _p_. After the general
analysis of Chapter I. and the narratives of catastrophic inflations
given in Chapter II., it is scarcely necessary to illustrate this
further,--it is a matter more readily understood than it was ten years
ago. A large change in _p_ greatly affects individual fortunes. Hence a
change after it has occurred, or sooner in so far as it is anticipated,
may greatly affect the monetary habits of the public in their attempt
to protect themselves from a similar loss in future, or to make gains
and avoid loss during the passage from the equilibrium corresponding to
the old value of _n_ to the equilibrium corresponding to its new value.
Thus after, during, and (so far as the change is anticipated) before a
change in the value of _n_, there will be some reaction on the values
of _k_, _k´_, and _r_, with the result that the change in the value of
_p_, at least temporarily and perhaps permanently (since habits and
practices, once changed, will not revert to exactly their old shape),
will not be precisely in proportion to the change in _n_.
The terms _inflation_ and _deflation_ are used by different writers
in varying senses. It would be convenient to speak of an increase
or decrease in _n_ as an inflation or deflation of _cash_; and of a
decrease or increase in _r_ as an inflation or deflation of _credit_.
The characteristic of the “credit-cycle” (as the alternation of boom
and depression is now described) consists in a tendency of _k_ and
_k´_ to diminish during the boom and increase during the depression,
irrespective of changes in _n_ and _r_, these movements representing
respectively a diminution and an increase of “real” balances (_i.e._
balances, in hand or at the bank, measured in terms of purchasing
power); so that we might call this phenomenon deflation and inflation
of real balances.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account