The other effect of dear money, or rather of dearer money in one centre
than in another, used to be to draw gold from the cheaper centre for
temporary employment in the dearer. But nowadays the only immediate
effect is to cause a new adjustment of the difference between the
spot and forward rates of exchange between the two centres. If money
becomes dearer in London, the discount on forward dollars diminishes or
gives way to a premium. The effect has been pointed out above of the
relative cheapening of money in London in the latter half of 1922 in
increasing the discount on forward dollars, and of the relative raising
of money-rates in the middle of 1923 in diminishing the discount. Such
are, in present circumstances, the principal direct consequences of a
moderate difference between interest rates in the two centres, apart,
of course, from the indirect, long-period influence. Since no one is
likely to remit money temporarily from one money market to another
on any important scale, with an uncovered exchange risk, merely to
take advantage of ½ or 1 per cent per annum difference in the interest
rate, the direct effect of dearer money on the _absolute_ level of
the exchanges, as distinguished from the difference between spot and
forward, is very small, being limited to the comparatively slight
influence which the relation between spot and forward rates exerts on
exchange speculators.[39] The pressure of arbitragers between spot
and forward exchange, seeking to take advantage of the new situation,
leads to a rapid adjustment of the difference between these rates,
until the business of temporary remittance, as distinct from exchange
speculation, is no more profitable than it was before, and consequently
does not occur on any increased scale; with the result that there is no
marked effect on the absolute level of the spot rate.
[39] If interest rates are raised in London, the discount on
forward dollars will decrease or a premium will appear.
This is likely to have some influence in encouraging
speculative sales of forward dollars (how much influence
depends on the proportion borne by the difference
between the spot and forward rates to the probable range
of fluctuation of the spot rate which the speculator
anticipates); and in so far as this is the case, the
covering sales of spot dollars by banks will move the rate
of exchange in favour of London.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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