The reasons given for the maintenance of a close relationship between
the Bank of England’s rate and that of the American Federal Reserve
Board sometimes show confusion. The eventual influence of an effective
high bank-rate on the general situation is undisputed; but the belief
that a moderate difference between bank-rates in London and New York
reacts directly on the sterling-dollar exchange, as it used to do under
a régime of convertibility, is a misapprehension. The direct reaction
of this difference is on the discount for forward dollars as against
spot dollars; and it cannot much affect the absolute level of the
spot rate unless the change in relative money-rates is comparable in
magnitude (as it used to be but no longer is) with the possible range
of exchange fluctuations.
CHAPTER IV
ALTERNATIVE AIMS IN MONETARY POLICY
Our first two chapters, on the evils proceeding from instability in the
purchasing power of money and on the part played by the exigencies of
Public Finance, have indicated the practical importance of our subject
to the welfare of society. In the third chapter an attempt has been
made to lay a foundation of theory upon which to raise constructions.
We can now turn, in this and the following chapter, to _Remedies_.
The instability of money has been compounded, in most countries except
the United States, of two elements: the failure of the national
currencies to remain stable in terms of what was supposed to be the
standard of value, namely gold; and the failure of gold itself to
remain stable in terms of purchasing power. Attention has been mainly
concentrated (_e.g._ by the Cunliffe Committee) on the first of these
two factors. It is often assumed that the restoration of the gold
standard, that is to say, of the convertibility of each national
currency at a fixed rate in terms of gold, must be, in any case, our
objective; and that the main question of controversy is whether
national currencies should be restored to their pre-war gold value or
to some lower value nearer to the present facts; in other words, the
choice between _Deflation_ and _Devaluation_.
This assumption is hasty. If we glance at the course of prices during
the last five years, it is obvious that the United States, which has
enjoyed a gold standard throughout, has suffered as severely as many
other countries, that in the United Kingdom the instability of gold has
been a larger factor than the instability of the exchange, that the
same is true even of France, and that in Italy it has been nearly as
large. On the other hand, in India, which has suffered violent exchange
fluctuations, the standard of value, as we shall see below, has been
more stable than in any other country.
We should not, therefore, by fixing the exchanges get rid of our
currency troubles. It is even possible that this step might weaken our
control. The problem of stabilisation has several sides, which we must
consider one by one:
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